Coincident indicators

What is Coincident indicators
Coincident indicators are created to present a snapshot of economic activity at about the time they are released. As such, they are helpful for understanding where we are in the business and credit cycles, and which part of a recession or recovery the economy is going through. Unlike leading indicators, they are not thought to predict anything about future activity. And in contrast to lagging indicators, they do not tell much about the past.
A- Non-Farm Payrolls: The non-farm payrolls data is not predictive of future changes in unemployment, income, or consumption, but it is useful for creating a portrait of the U.S. economy as it exists at the time of the release. Unemployment and job openings at U.S. firms are extremely important components of the equation determining GDP growth, which is essential to ensuring better living standards and income levels for all U.S. residents. Traders use the unemployment numbers for many purposes, from determining the interest rate policies of the Fed, to anticipating the beginning of recessions.

B- Personal Income, Less Transfer Payments: This item measures the personal income of U.S. residents, excluding social security payments, and income transfers overseas (such as the transfers of migrant workers to their home countries). It is useful for establishing the income trends in the economy which in turn are reflected in consumption statistics, and thence in production and GDP. Income statistics are always carefully watched and eagerly anticipated by market participants both due to the large role of the consumer in the economy, and because of the implications for GDP. Present personal income will have implications for future consumption, but it is also an important component of the present picture, and is thus included among coincident indicators.

C- Index of Industrial Production: This item records the production of mines, factories, utilities, and similar industrial facilities in the U.S. It corresponds to the Federal Reserve’s own series on industrial production, and captures a snapshot of the manufacturing sector. The data is gathered from firms and factories around the United States on a regular basis, and then combined to create the index.

D- Manufacturing and Trade Sales: This index measures the changes in the sales of manufacturing firms and trade flows.

Conference Board Indicator

Conference Board Indicator
The Conference Board was founded more than 90 years ago in order to guide businesses toward better performance by providing research and information on a wide range of economical issues. It is a non-profit organization, and as such, holds tax exempt status in the United States.
In this text we’ll examine the three types of indicators released by the Board on a monthly basis. These indicators are divided into the three groups of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators based on the correspondence between their release data and the type of data covered by them. In addition to classifying the data released by the Board, the division is utilized by many other foundations and institutions in order to classify information.
Leading Indicators: Leading indicators provide information about the future direction of economic events. They are derived from the analysis of data with long-term impact, and they thus provide some insight to the future of economic developments. Of course, leading indicators only speak about probabilities. They are useful, but do not provide certain guidance about the future
There are many kinds of leading indicators that most people deal without even being aware of it. A very good example is the lending surveys conducted by the many central banks of the world. Since the amount of credit available in an economy has a direct bearing on the future of economic activity, and also because the impact is felt slowly over a long time, it is possible to predict the future growth performance of any economy on the basis of the lending policies of its banks. If, for example, banks contract credit for a significant period of time, it is usually clear that economic activity will shrink, and GDP will fall or stagnate. As such, bank lending statistics act as a kind of leading indicator for overall economic activity.
Another, even more obvious and stronger example would be the Federal Funds Rate. Since the Federal Funds Rate is the cost of the cheapest borrowing available in the economy, it has a powerful impact on the willingness of firms and consumers to borrow. Since borrowing usually leads to more investment and more spending, a better average GDP growth rate is the expected outcome over the longer term. As such, the Fed Rate can be regarded as another kind of leading indicator for overall economic activity.
By contrast, lagging indicators describe conditions that are anterior to the release data. A good example is the GDP report: it takes a long time to prepare the GDP report, and past GDP growth usually has little relationship to the future of economic activity in a nation. As such, the GDP report only provides a snapshot of economic situation as it existed in the past. The unemployment rate is another example: unemployment rates begin to fall a while after the economy has stabilized, and as such, they provide little value in terms of predicting the future. On the other hand, they can provide clues about the future of consumption, and can also be regarded as a leading indicator in that respect.
The third type of indicators are coincident indicators. These are usually timely snapshots of economic activity at the time they are released, and give important clues about the status of the economy as it stands, but do not provide a lot of insight into future developments. An example of this type of information is the retail sales data. This type of data usually reflects

Lagging Indicator

What is Lagging Indicator
The lagging indicators are released by the Conference Board each month providing insight on financial developments in the past few months. As we discussed above, the economic impact of lagging indicators are felt by economic on a delayed basis. If a lagging indicator is rising, it is confirming a development which has already taken place in the past. Bank lending for example, is a leading indicator for recessions (that is, it precedes the commencement of a recession), but is a lagging indicator for recoveries (in other words, the indicators reflect the improvement after the recovery has begun, and is already being observed by market participants and analysts. Due to their delayed nature, lagging indicatos are used to confirm economic events, rather than predicting them.

1. Average Duration of Unemployment. this indicator measures the average of weeks an unemployed worker remains out of work during the past month. In other words, it is a way of measuring how tight or difficult the labor market is. If unemployed workers have to spend a lot of time looking for jobs, the implication is that businesses are unwilling to recommence hiring, and thus lack confidence in the future of the economy. This value is inverted to present a lower value in a recession, and a higher value in an expansion. Recovery in the labor market (or deterioration), is subsequent to recovery or deterioration in the general economic environment. As such this item is included as one of the lagging indicators.
2. Inventories to sales ratio. The stocking and liquidation of inventories reflects the expectations of managers. Inventories are lagging indicators in recessions (managers usually liquidate inventories a while after they are aware of deteriorating conditions in the economy, and falling consumer demand), and recoveries (managers beguin to replensih stock vigorously only after they are confident that the economy is firmly on the path to recovery. The inventory to sales ratio tends to rise into the middle of a recessions, then declining to low levels, and once again rising during recoveries as managers begin to restock. The Conference Board obtains the inventory-to-sales ratio from the GDP data released by the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis).
3. Average Prime Rate: The prime rate is simply the interest rate charged by banks to their mostly highly-rated customers with good credit scores and past performance. Banks adjust the prime rate immediately after the Federal Reserve declares its own changes to the funds rate. The prime rate is reflective of the Fed Funds Rate, which can be a leading or a lagging indicator depending on the competence of the governors leading the institution. In cases where the Boar of Governors fails to anticipate falling inflation, the rates will come down only in response to an actual recession. Conversely, if the bank cannot anticipate a recovery, the rates will begin to rise only after inflation has risen materially.
The Conference Board makes the assumption that central banks cannot anticipate economic events efficiently, and considers the prime rate a lagging indicator.
4. Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding: Banks adjust their lending policies in response to economic developments. Thus, at the beginning of a recovery, the lending policies of banks will remain restrictive, and only after there are credible signs that the economy is on a firm route to recovery will they begin to expand credit liberally. SAince commercial and industrial loans command higher interest rates in general, are more sizable, and often riskier, the adjustments in the category tend to lag economic recoveries by a year or more. If the cause of a recession is non-financial, banks begin to contract credit a while after the economy begins to contract. Thus the commercial and industrial loans category is usually a lagging indicator of recoveries and recessions.
5. Change in Labor Cost per unit of manufacturing output: This item peaks during recessions, as output usually shrinks much faster than labor compensation even in an open and capitalistic economy like the U.S. The data is gathered from various manufacturing industry resources, as well as BEA and the Federal Reserve.

Forex Investment Fund (FIF)

Forex Investment Fund (FIF)
Forex Investment Fund (FIF) is a high yield, private loan program, backed up by Bonds, Forex, Gold, Stocks trading, and investing in various funds and activities all over the world. Our mission is to provide our investors with a great opportunity for their funds by investing as prudently as possible in various arenas to gain a high rates in return. We are a successful group of private individuals who have made our money through prudent investments in the finance industry on a worldwide basis for over 8 years. Honestly, please do not compare us to something like "HYIP" programs or "games" that are always coming and going. Besides, we do have a reliable and profitable source of real net income, based on the real investment from the real market.

That means, we are able to pay our investors for as many years as they choose to remain with us, whether or not any new investors ever join. Our team has been proudly owned and operated since June 1998 participating in many online and offline ventures, resulting in great margins of profit for the investor teams and the sole investors. We are a group of private individuals that have been in the investment arena for over 8 years, most of our investor teammates are professional bankers, some of them have years of business and financial related experience. We are the serious people who are running the serious business. Our group is made up of American, Asian, Australian, Canadian, European people, thus we are able to watch all the different markets almost 24 hours a day.

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Small business

Small business you need to have insurance . But before you buy small business insurance, it's wise to shop around for the best rates and to ensure that you have a clear understanding of what needs to be covered.

When looking for a small business insurance quote,

 There are some things you will need to know.

 Nature of Your Small Business: There are some types of businesses that many insurance companies decline coverage, like amusement parks, aviation businesses and security companies. The good news is that there are small business insurance companies specializing in these areas, you just need to seek them out.
Your Address and Building Specifications: When shopping for quotes, you'll need to state if your business is run out of a home or a commercial location and answer some additional questions. If it is a commercial office:
What is the total customer area?
What types of tenants occupy the building

What is the age of the building?

Chemical Storage: If you use chemicals in your small business, some carriers will want to know where the supplies are stored. If you are a mobile service and the chemicals are stored in a vehicle, you need to specify where the vehicle is parked.
Company Overview: Insurance agents will also ask you how many years you have been in business, your projected and current gross annual receipts, plus the number and nature of employees.
Business Vehicles: If you have mobile service vehicles, you will need names, social security numbers and drivers license numbers for all employees who drive the vehicles.

Home Insurance

Why Need Home Insurance 
Home insurance is necessary to protect not just your belongings, but also your physical home. While no amount of money can replace pictures of your children, the coffee table you bought when you first got married, or the energy that you put into making your house a home, home insurance exists so that when you start over from a theft or storm or fire, that you don't have to go into your own pocket to begin anew.

 Basics
Before you sign any policies, it's important that you know the home insurance basics so that you make an informed decision with full context. Don't be alarmed if you paid $200,000 for your home and it's only insured for $100,000. Remember that your lot has value even without a house on it, and that property won't burn down even if the house does. So the "dwelling" coverage is always going to be less than what you paid for the house.
Is Home Insurance Required?
If you are buying a house, you will need to secure home insurance before you close. The bank will require this so that you protect their investment. If you own your house outright (i.e. there is no mortgage on it), you technically do not have to carry home insurance. It's a great idea so that you don't get left holding a big bill and nowhere to live should the worst occur, but technically, it is your property and if you don't want to insure it, you don't have to. The wise thing to do is to keep a home insurance policy