Ruleofforex2: Coincident indicators

Wednesday 6 April 2011

Coincident indicators


What is Coincident indicators
Coincident indicators are created to present a snapshot of economic activity at about the time they are released. As such, they are helpful for understanding where we are in the business and credit cycles, and which part of a recession or recovery the economy is going through. Unlike leading indicators, they are not thought to predict anything about future activity. And in contrast to lagging indicators, they do not tell much about the past.
A- Non-Farm Payrolls: The non-farm payrolls data is not predictive of future changes in unemployment, income, or consumption, but it is useful for creating a portrait of the U.S. economy as it exists at the time of the release. Unemployment and job openings at U.S. firms are extremely important components of the equation determining GDP growth, which is essential to ensuring better living standards and income levels for all U.S. residents. Traders use the unemployment numbers for many purposes, from determining the interest rate policies of the Fed, to anticipating the beginning of recessions.

B- Personal Income, Less Transfer Payments: This item measures the personal income of U.S. residents, excluding social security payments, and income transfers overseas (such as the transfers of migrant workers to their home countries). It is useful for establishing the income trends in the economy which in turn are reflected in consumption statistics, and thence in production and GDP. Income statistics are always carefully watched and eagerly anticipated by market participants both due to the large role of the consumer in the economy, and because of the implications for GDP. Present personal income will have implications for future consumption, but it is also an important component of the present picture, and is thus included among coincident indicators.

C- Index of Industrial Production: This item records the production of mines, factories, utilities, and similar industrial facilities in the U.S. It corresponds to the Federal Reserve’s own series on industrial production, and captures a snapshot of the manufacturing sector. The data is gathered from firms and factories around the United States on a regular basis, and then combined to create the index.

D- Manufacturing and Trade Sales: This index measures the changes in the sales of manufacturing firms and trade flows.

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